U.S. President Donald Trump and former Democratic nominee Joe Biden are in the run-up to the three-day presidential election. With Biden ahead in the polls, President Trump decided to shift his policy focus to economic revival in an attempt to make up for the failure of his corona response.[AP=연합뉴스]

President Donald Trump spent 2-3 days and 34 days in white house detention at Camp David in northern Maryland. But two days in the woods, which Trump himself called a “working weekend,” was a time to reframe his presidential strategy with his advisors, including his daughters, Ivanka, Jared Kushner, senior aides, and Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow.

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Opinion polls show that former Vice President Joe Biden is lagging behind the Democratic nominee in the main race to win the U.S. presidential election in the coming months.

According to U.S. poll analysts FiveThirtyEight and RealClearpolitics, in a month-long survey in April of the new coronavirus infection (Corona19), President Trump averaged 6.5 percentage points and 6.1 percentage points behind Biden in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Of the 538 electors (270 majority) in the overall presidential election, 20 and 16 each are out of the margin of error.

U.S. Presidential D-6-Month Race. Graphic by Park Kyung-min, minn@joongang.co.kr

For President Trump, Pennsylvania and Michigan are the marginal line for re-election. In the 2016 presidential election, she won 306 of the 206 presidential elections and won the nomination of Democrat Hillary Clinton, who had 232, but if she put two places to Biden, she would reach a 270-vote majority and no longer have a place to back down.

The problem is that Arizona (11 electoral colleges, 4.4%P), Florida (29, 3.5%P), and Wisconsin (10 3.3%P) and North Carolina (15, 2.0%P), which won by 1-3 percentage points in the last presidential election, are lagging by a margin of error of 2.0 to 4.4 percentage points. If one of these is done, President Trump will have to leave the White House in January next year. Even Ohio (18) with President Trump’s 8.1 percentage point victory is 0.7 percentage points behind Biden.

It’s not just public opinion polls. The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) themselves’ polls clearly show edits in key areas. Outraged by the gloomy results, President Trump called Brad Parscale, the campaign manager, last week, and said, “I’m not losing to Biden. He also threatened to file a lawsuit, the Washington Post reported.

Trump himself, who would have denied that it was “fake news” at any time, publicly expressed his dismembered opinion on Twitter on March 30, saying that it was “just as fake as in 2016” and that it was “more messy.”

The allocation of the electoral college for the presidential election according to the U.S. Raceparty Poll. Graphic by Park Kyung-min, minn@joongang.co.kr

Six months later, the worst-case scenario would be when President Trump defeated Biden in all seven contenders and defeated the Electoral College by 352 to 186 on November 3.

However, even pollsters do not expect all contenders to fall to Biden, according to current polls. Because the cohesion and loyalty of President Trump’s supporters is much stronger than Biden’s, the battle within the margin of error can easily be reversed. The evidence is that hillary’s 2016 presidential D-6 race rate survey, which was much ahead of now, has changed the actual results of the presidential election.

Former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove, who re-elected President George W. Bush, warned in a Wall Street Journal article on March 30, “Keep in mind that the Democratic People’s Interest is still far from being held in earnest in the face of the focus of the American people’s interest singing to Corona 19.”

In a Real Clearpolitics poll at the end of April 2016, Hillary was ahead by 7.3 percent national average, Wisconsin 10.7%, Michigan 10.5%, Pennsylvania 7.4%, and Florida 6.7 percentage points, but in the real election, she voted nationally (2.1 percent for Hillary). Except for all, Trump won.

Thomas Schwartz, a professor at Vanderbilt University, said, “It’s not surprising that Biden is ahead now because President Trump has been hurt by corona19 responses, such as the collapse of the U.S. economy and his remarks on injecting disinfectants, but six months in the political world is the same time as eternity and there can be a lot of things that can change the outcome of the presidential election.”

“Biden is weaker than Trump, with energy, determination, and support, and the key is to choose a strong running mate (vice presidential candidate) who can make up for it.”

Stephen Schmidt, a professor at Iowa State University, said, “Trump’s repeated narratives are that his advisors are revising their strategy by reducing the time of the Corona 19 briefing, and Biden is also engulfed in a scandal that sexually assaulted a female secretary 27 years ago.”

President Trump’s economic recovery is the most urgent, as he had a solid foundation for his re-election two months ago. If 30 million unemployed people and -4.8% economic growth (q1) lead to the presidential election, the theory of accountability will only be strong because he is the incumbent president.

In Orlando, Florida, on February 2, hospitality workers, including hotels and restaurants, protest in front of a beauty salon where Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s press conference was held to demand unemployment benefits. [AP=연합뉴스]

Professor David Lublin of the American University pointed out that “President Trump lost the main argument for re-election when corona 19 destroyed the U.S. economy, and at the same time, he blew up political opportunities with a crappy response.”

“South Korea’s ruling party won the recent general elections, and the support rate of maryland governor Larry Hogan and Democrat Andrew Cuomo of the same party increased,” he said, “while President Trump’s lack of leadership and empathy has alienated the floating class.”

Robert Schmal Northedesaid said, “The November presidential election will be centered on an assessment of President Trump’s corona 19 response,” adding, “It’s very doubtful whether the 2016 reversal will be possible again because of the damage done by major contenders such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, who won closely in 2016.”

To reverse this situation, Politico reported, “President Trump will move the center from the virus response to economic revival policies such as tax cuts and deregulation, starting with the Lincoln Memorial Town Hall on the 3rd evening.”

Washington correspondent Jeong Hyo-sik jjpol@joongang.co.kr



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